Disruption Management Presentations

Most of Mike Irrgang’s work in this area was done under client confidentiality agreements. Here is a selection of presentations which do not have that restriction, and can be shared publicly:

Applying 1980s Artificial Intelligence to Airline Operations: Early Innovations and Challenges

This 1987 report explores the application of artificial intelligence techniques from the 1980s to real-world airline challenges such as scheduling, maintenance diagnostics, dispatching, and passenger services. It details the use of expert systems, rule-based logic, and early machine learning approaches to streamline decision-making and improve operational efficiency. The study highlights both the promise and limitations of AI during that era, offering valuable historical insight into how early computing innovations laid the groundwork for today’s intelligent airline systems. This presentation was given at AGIFORS in April,1987, in Rio de Janeiro; and later in the year at the IATA Operations Conference in Lugano, Switzerland. It resulted in a sale to Iberia Airlines of the first-ever Irregular Operations Management System.”

The "Dump Plan": A Strategic Approach to Weather Diversions at American Airlines

Originally developed in 1991 by Michael Irrgang, the “Dump Plan” proposes a proactive method for handling weather-related diversions at major hubs like DFW and ORD. Instead of holding aircraft in the air or diverting them haphazardly, the plan recommends preemptively landing inbound flights at designated alternates to maintain operational sequence, minimize disruption, and reduce fuel usage. The strategy offers enhanced predictability, improved crew legality, and significant cost savings—potentially reducing diverted flight fuel costs by up to $150,000 per event. Though never fully implemented, the plan remains a powerful and forward-thinking solution for irregular operations management.

Quantifying the Cost of Diversions: A Data-Driven Study by American Airlines and Flight Dynamics

This comprehensive 1992 study, conducted jointly by American Airlines and Flight Dynamics, evaluates the operational and financial impact of weather-related flight diversions. It quantifies both hard and soft costs—ranging from crew overtime and fuel to passenger ill will—across actual case studies at DFW and LGA. Using conservative models, the report estimates over $170 million in annual diversion-related costs. The findings support a three-pronged solution: reduced diversions via Heads-Up Display (HUD) technology, operational improvements like the “Dump Plan,” and enhanced dispatch decision-support systems to streamline recovery. Together, these measures aim to mitigate disruption and preserve system integrity.

ValSim: Boeing’s Delay Simulation Research for Airline Operational Efficiency

Presented at AGIFORS in May 2005, this Boeing research introduces the “Value Simulator” (ValSim), a system designed to visualize, simulate, and quantify the operational impact of airline delays. Through “as-is” and “what-if” simulations, the tool helps airlines assess the cascading effects of disruptions, optimize flight scheduling, and reduce delay-induced costs. A key insight reveals that maintenance delays—though less frequent—account for a disproportionately high share of total delay minutes. The simulator’s integrated model enables strategic decision-making by estimating delay costs, cancellations, ripple effects, and the effectiveness of schedule adjustments, all tied to real-world airline data.

ValSim and the Accelerating Cost of Disruption: A New Approach to Airline Delay Economics

Presented at AGIFORS 2007, this Boeing-led study introduces a breakthrough methodology for airline delay costing using the ValSim simulation platform. Moving beyond average per-minute estimates, the report demonstrates how delay costs increase exponentially with time due to cascading impacts on passengers, crews, aircraft availability, and brand perception. It introduces a tiered cost model—factoring in direct operational costs, passenger ill-will, lost utilization, and network sensitivity—to provide a more realistic view of financial exposure. The methodology enables airlines to quantify disruption more accurately, revealing that delays over 2 hours can cost up to $134 per minute, compared to just $8 for short delays.

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